FX Carry & Positioning Panel
See the indicative rate differential and weekly futures positioning behind each major pair you cover — context for your own plan, not a signal.
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Worked example — the numbers below are illustrative.
Example data — replace with your own
Covers: EUR/USD · GBP/USD · USD/JPY · AUD/USD · USD/CAD · USD/CHF · NZD/USD
Example as of 24/07/2026, 09:00:00.
EUR/USD
Long EUR / short USD pays ~1.25pp of negative carry (EUR rate below USD).
Quote rate: 4.50% (as of 2026-07-23)
indicative differential from policy rates — not your broker's actual rollover/carry
z-score: 0.80
Report date: 2026-07-21
weekly futures positioning — Tuesday data, published Friday
Fast SMA(20) above slow SMA(50) — price structure is trending up.
GBP/USD
Long GBP / short USD earns ~0.50pp of positive carry (GBP rate above USD).
Quote rate: 4.50% (as of 2026-07-23)
indicative differential from policy rates — not your broker's actual rollover/carry
z-score: -1.40
Report date: 2026-07-21
weekly futures positioning — Tuesday data, published Friday
Fast SMA(20) below slow SMA(50) — price structure is trending down.
USD/JPY
Long USD / short JPY earns ~3.75pp of positive carry (USD rate above JPY).
Quote rate: 0.75% (as of 2026-06-30)
indicative differential from policy rates — not your broker's actual rollover/carry
z-score: -2.10
Report date: 2026-07-21
weekly futures positioning — Tuesday data, published Friday
Fast SMA(20) above slow SMA(50) — price structure is trending up.
AUD/USD
Long AUD / short USD pays ~0.75pp of negative carry (AUD rate below USD).
Quote rate: 4.50% (as of 2026-07-23)
indicative differential from policy rates — not your broker's actual rollover/carry
z-score: 1.10
Report date: 2026-07-21
weekly futures positioning — Tuesday data, published Friday
Fast and slow SMAs are entwined — no clear trend (range).
USD/CAD
Long USD / short CAD earns ~1.50pp of positive carry (USD rate above CAD).
Quote rate: 3.00% (as of 2026-06-30)
indicative differential from policy rates — not your broker's actual rollover/carry
z-score: -0.50
Report date: 2026-07-21
weekly futures positioning — Tuesday data, published Friday
Fast and slow SMAs are entwined — no clear trend (range).
USD/CHF
Long USD / short CHF earns ~3.50pp of positive carry (USD rate above CHF).
Quote rate: 1.00% (as of 2026-06-30)
indicative differential from policy rates — not your broker's actual rollover/carry
z-score: 0.20
Report date: 2026-07-21
weekly futures positioning — Tuesday data, published Friday
Fast SMA(20) above slow SMA(50) — price structure is trending up.
NZD/USD
Policy-rate data unavailable for one leg.
Quote rate: 4.50% (as of 2026-07-23)
indicative differential from policy rates — not your broker's actual rollover/carry
z-score: -0.30
Report date: 2026-07-21
weekly futures positioning — Tuesday data, published Friday
Fast and slow SMAs are entwined — no clear trend (range).
Rate-differential proxies differ slightly by country (fed funds, ECB deposit rate, SONIA, monthly interbank rates for JPY/AUD/CAD/CHF) — the same honest proxy the FOREX engine uses. NZD has no actively-maintained FRED policy-rate series, so its differential is unavailable by design.
See the rate differential and weekly futures positioning behind each major pair you cover — context to bring into your own plan, not a signal to trade off.
Steps
- 1
Coverage is the 7 majors the underlying data cleanly supports: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD. NZD/USD has no rate differential shown — there is no actively-maintained central-bank policy series for NZD in this data source.
- 2
Read the differential card first, but read its label with it: this is an INDICATIVE gap between two countries’ policy rates, not your broker’s actual overnight rollover — those routinely differ, sometimes by a lot.
- 3
Check the "as of" date on each side of the differential separately. The two legs are not always the same age — one central bank may print daily, another monthly.
- 4
Read the COT card next: it is FUTURES speculative positioning, not spot, and it is already old news by the time you see it — Tuesday’s data is not published until Friday. Treat the 4-week change as the direction of travel, not a today number.
- 5
Where a trend read is shown, it is the same fast/slow moving-average context the FOREX engine uses — a description of recent price structure, not a forecast.
- 6
None of this is advice on which pair to trade, when, or how big — that judgement is the course’s territory. Use the numbers to inform a plan you write on the Trade Plan Card.
What the numbers mean
- differential
What: The gap between the two currencies’ central-bank policy rates (base rate minus quote rate), in percentage points.
How to read it: A positive number means the base currency’s policy rate is higher than the quote currency’s — being long the base/short the quote earns that gap in theory.
What it is not: This is indicative differential from policy rates — not your broker's actual rollover/carry. Your broker’s actual swap/rollover charge depends on their financing rate, your position size and direction, and is very often worse than the theoretical gap shown here.
- rateStamp
What: The latest available policy-rate reading for one leg of the pair, with the date it was published.
How to read it: Central banks publish at different frequencies (daily for the Fed/ECB/BoE, monthly for the others shown here) — check the date before comparing two legs.
What it is not: It is not necessarily today’s rate — some series only update monthly, so the stamped date can be weeks old even when it is the latest print available.
- cotNet
What: The latest weekly net position of non-commercial (speculative) traders in that currency’s CFTC futures contract: longs minus shorts.
How to read it: A large positive number means speculators are net long that currency’s futures; a large negative number means net short.
What it is not: This is weekly futures positioning — Tuesday data, published Friday. It measures the futures market, not spot, and it is not your own or your broker’s positioning.
- cotChange
What: How the net non-commercial position has moved over the trailing 4 weekly reports.
How to read it: Read it as the recent direction of travel in speculative positioning, not a level.
What it is not: It says nothing about who is right — crowded positioning can extend for a long time before it reverses.
- cotZ
What: How stretched the latest net position is versus its own trailing history, expressed as a z-score (standard deviations from the mean).
How to read it: Values near zero are unremarkable; values a long way from zero mean current positioning is unusual for this currency historically.
What it is not: It is not a timing signal on its own — a stretched reading can stay stretched, and this tool draws no conclusion for you.
- trend
What: A fast/slow moving-average read on the pair’s recent daily closes — the same trend context the FOREX engine computes.
How to read it: It describes recent price structure: trending up, trending down, or range-bound.
What it is not: It is not a forecast, and it is omitted honestly (rather than guessed) when there is not enough clean daily history to compute it yet.